Uncertain judgements: eliciting experts' probabilities A O'Hagan, CE Buck, A Daneshkhah, JR Eiser, PH Garthwaite, ... John Wiley & Sons, 2006 | 1631 | 2006 |

Uncertain judgements: eliciting experts' probabilities A O'Hagan, CE Buck, A Daneshkhah, JR Eiser, PH Garthwaite, ... John Wiley & Sons, 2006 | 1631 | 2006 |

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach JE Oakley, A O'Hagan Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology …, 2004 | 1071 | 2004 |

Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs J Oakley, A O'Hagan Biometrika 89 (4), 769-784, 2002 | 388 | 2002 |

A systematic review and economic evaluation of alendronate, etidronate, risedronate, raloxifene and teriparatide for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. M Stevenson, ML Jones, E De Nigris, N Brewer, S Davis, J Oakley Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) 9 (22), 1-160, 2005 | 333 | 2005 |

Probability is perfect, but we can't elicit it perfectly A O'Hagan, JE Oakley Reliability Engineering & System Safety 85 (1-3), 239-248, 2004 | 286 | 2004 |

Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes S Conti, JP Gosling, JE Oakley, A O'Hagan Biometrika 96 (3), 663-676, 2009 | 191 | 2009 |

Estimating multiparameter partial expected value of perfect information from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: a nonparametric regression approach M Strong, JE Oakley, A Brennan Medical Decision Making 34 (3), 311-326, 2014 | 164 | 2014 |

Multivariate Gaussian process emulators with nonseparable covariance structures TE Fricker, JE Oakley, NM Urban Technometrics 55 (1), 47-56, 2013 | 137 | 2013 |

A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts DE Morris, JE Oakley, JA Crowe Environmental Modelling & Software 52, 1-4, 2014 | 133 | 2014 |

Estimating percentiles of uncertain computer code outputs J Oakley Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 53 …, 2004 | 104 | 2004 |

Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: a tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda I Andrianakis, IR Vernon, N McCreesh, TJ McKinley, JE Oakley, ... PLoS Comput Biol 11 (1), e1003968, 2015 | 98 | 2015 |

Methods for expected value of information analysis in complex health economic models: developments on the health economics of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate for … P Tappenden, JB Chilcott, S Eggington, J Oakley, C McCabe Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) 8 (27), iii, 1-78, 2004 | 89 | 2004 |

Gaussian process modeling in conjunction with individual patient simulation modeling: a case study describing the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment of … MD Stevenson, J Oakley, JB Chilcott Medical Decision Making 24 (1), 89-100, 2004 | 85 | 2004 |

Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: a discrepancy approach M Strong, JE Oakley, J Chilcott Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 61 …, 2012 | 77 | 2012 |

Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach JE Oakley, A O'Hagan Biometrika 94 (2), 427-441, 2007 | 77 | 2007 |

Estimating the expected value of sample information using the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: a fast, nonparametric regression-based method M Strong, JE Oakley, A Brennan, P Breeze Medical Decision Making 35 (5), 570-583, 2015 | 71 | 2015 |

Eliciting Gaussian process priors for complex computer codes J Oakley Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician) 51 (1 …, 2002 | 71 | 2002 |

SHELF: the Sheffield elicitation framework (version 2.0) JE Oakley, A O’Hagan School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, UK (http …, 2010 | 70 | 2010 |

Modelling the expected net benefits of interventions to reduce the burden of medication errors J Karnon, A McIntosh, J Dean, P Bath, A Hutchinson, J Oakley, N Thomas, ... Journal of health services research & policy 13 (2), 85-91, 2008 | 66 | 2008 |